New Home Sales Slip In October

After posting a strong September, the number of newly-built homes sold nationwide slipped in October.

Total units sold on an annual basis dropped by 25,000 from September; supplies of new homes climbed 0.7 months. Home supply is back to its rolling, 6-month average of 8.6 months.

Like everything else in real estate, however, the October's New Home Sales results varied by location.

For example, except for the South, each U.S. region posted a loss. In the South, there was a 3 percent gain. This is statistically significant because more new homes are sold in the South than in all other U.S. regions combined.

In October, the South accounted for 58 percent of all homes sold.

The dip in New Home Sales did not surprise Wall Street. New Home Sales is closely correlated to Housing Starts, and Housing Starts fell in July and August. Furthermore, it seems home builders expected the dip and are brushing it off.

In a poll taken 2 weeks ago, builders reported higher confidence in housing, and their respective prospects for the future. Home builder confidence is at its highest point since June.

For buyers in Corona , the effects of New Home Sales data are unknown. In a normal environment, falling sales volume and rising home supplies would help shift negotiation leverage away from the seller and toward the buyer, resulting in lower sales prices.

However, in this market, the "sellers" (i.e. home builders) are more confident about housing, and that offsets a buyer's statistical edge.

With home prices stagnant and mortgage rates rising, therefore, the best "deals" may come between now and the New Year.

Pending Home Sales Slip In September, Suggesting A Buyer's Market Until January

After 3 straight months of improvement, the Pending Home Sales Index slid lower in September. As compared to August, September's reading fell 2 percent.

A "pending home sale" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The data is drawn from a combination of local real estate associations and national brokers, and represents 20 percent of all purchase transactions in a given month.

Because of the large sample set, and because 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days, the Pending Home Sales Index is a terrific future indicator for the housing market. A high correlation exists between the Pending Home Sales Index and the NAR's monthly Existing Home Sales report issued two months hence.

Expect home sales to idle into the New Year, therefore.

For home buyers in Corona , this is good news. Over the last two months, housing markets have overwhelmingly favored home sellers.

Consider than, since June, the volume of both new home sales and existing home sales has increased, causing the available home inventory to fall by months. Meanwhile, helped by low interest rates, demand from buyers has remained relatively stable.

As with everything in economics, falling supply with constant demand leads to higher prices.

Therefore, the Pending Home Sales Index's fading September figures suggest a more balanced supply-and-demand curve in the months ahead, a move that should suppress rising home prices and shift negotiation leverage back to the buy-side. 

So long as mortgage rates remain rock bottom, the autumn season is looking like a terrific time to buy.

New Home Housing Stock Drops To A 5-Month Low

In the same week that the National Association of REALTORS reported home resales up 10 percent in September, the U.S. Census Bureau reported similarly strong results for the new construction market. 

After improving 1 percent in August, New Home Sales popped another 7 percent in September.

It's no wonder homebuilder confidence is at a 5-month high.

• Sales volume is higher in 4 of the last 5 months
• New home supply is at a 5-month low
• Buyer foot traffic is on the rise

For home buyers in Corona , September's New Home Sales data may foreshadow a shift in builder sales strategies and it's something worth watching.

Recall that in April, the month that the federal homebuyer tax credit contract deadline passed for non-military citizens, sales of new homes was strong as buyers rushed to meet the April 30 cut-off date.

When the month ended, there were 216,000 new homes for sale -- an inventory that would have taken 6 months to sell off in full, given April's sales pace.

In May, however, the month after the tax credit deadline, buyers vanished. As a consequence, total units sold dropped 31 percent to their lowest level in recorded history. Coincidentally, at the end of May, there were still 216,000 units for sale.

By contrast, though, at May's sale pace, the inventory would have needed nine months to sell out.

This is why builders are optimistic. The market for new construction is improving so buyers may have a harder time trying to negotiate for items like free upgrades or sales price reductions. So long as New Home Sales improve, home buyers may find themselves paying more money for less house.

Therefore, if you're in the market for a newly-built home , you may want to move up your time frame. The longer you wait, the more it may cost you.

As Buyer Foot Traffic Rises, So Does Homebuilder Confidence

As the "pulse of the single-family housing market", the Housing Market Index is a monthly product of the National Association of Homebuilders. Its scores range from 1-100, with a reading a 50 or better suggesting "favorable conditions" for builders.

Because of its methodology, the Housing Market Index can offer excellent insight into the Corona market for newly-built homes. This is because its value is a composite of three survey questions:

1. How are market conditions today?
2. How do market conditions look 6 months from now?
3. How is the prospective traffic of new buyers for new homes?

Builder responses are collected, weighted, then presented as the Housing Market Index.

According to the NAHB, October's HMI reading of 16 is its highest value in 5 months. The uptick hints that the market for newly-built homes may rebound more quickly that this summer's weak new homes sales figures would otherwise suggest.

You'll remember that, between April and August, the number of new homes sold per month fell by 30 percent and the available, new home inventory climbed 2.3 months.

This month, though, builders report much better foot traffic and, as a result, have raised their expectations for the next six months of sales. Low mortgage rates are likely aiding the optimism, too.

As compared to 1 year ago, average, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are lower by 0.75 percent, a payment savings of $45 per $100,000 borrowed.

New Home Sales Unchanged In August; Market Stabilizing

Existing Home Sales rebounded last month after a lackluster July. New Home Sales data, by contrast, did not.

After an upward revision to July's data, New Home Sales remained unchanged at 288,000 units in August. It marks the second-lowest number of units sold in a month since 1963, the year government started its record-keeping.

At the current pace of sales, the newly-built home inventory would be depleted in 8.6 months.

The August New Home Sales was weaker-than-expected, but both Wall Street investors and Main Street economists are shrugging it off. The numbers were foreshadowed by weakening housing figures from earlier this summer.

For example:

1. Building Permits dropped between March and June
2. Housing Starts dropped between April and July
3. Homebuilder confidence continues to sag

Together, these three data points suggest that the market for new homes will be soft through at least this month.

With New Home Sales fading and colder months ahead, it may be an opportune time for home buyers in Corona to look at new construction. Builders are eager to move inventory and the cost of materials remains low.

Buying "new" may never be cheaper -- especially with mortgage rates as low as they are. The 0.750 percent drop in rates since January has shaved $188 off of a $200,000 mortgage's monthly cost. That's $2,250 per year in savings.

As home supplies dwindle and mortgage rates rise, finding "great deals" in new construction will undoubtedly get tougher. Take advantage of today's market conditions, combined with builder pessimism. It may be the right combination at the right time to get that new home for cheap.

New Home Sales Drop In July -- Just Like Existing Home Sales

One day after the National Association of Realtors released the softest Existing Home Sales report since 1995, the U.S. Census Bureau released a similarly-weak New Home Sales report.

Americans bought just 276,000 newly-built homes in July. That marks the fewest units sold since the government started keeping records in 1963.

In addition, although new home inventory actually dropped 2,000 units in July, the slowing sales pace still managed to push the national supply higher by 1.1 months.  At July's rate of sales, the nation's new home inventory would be exhausted in just about 9 months.

None of this news should surprise you, though. It's all been foreshadowed for weeks.

First, Single-Family Housing Starts have dropped in every month since April.  A "housing start" is a when a home starts construction and, because fewer homes are under construction, we should expect fewer homes to be sold.

Second, Building Permits are down.  The number of new permits peaked in March and have fallen 23 percent since.

And, lastly, home builder confidence ranks at its lowest levels since early-2009. A contributing factor in that pessimism is dwindling buyer foot traffic.

Regardless, there's two sides to the story. Although the New Home Sales data looks bad for builders, it can be terrific  for you. This is because new homes are more likely to be discounted when the sales cycle favors buyers.

Coupled with ultra-low mortgage rates, the cost of buying a newly-built home in Corona may have just become cheaper.

New Homes Sales Gain in June, But Gains Are Relative

After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.

As published by the Census Bureau, June's New Home Sales report showed:

1. A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
2. A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home

There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.

June's data is a major improvement over May, but it's possible that the true "new home market" may be softer than the statistics suggest.  This is for several reasons.

First, we're comparing June's sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.

In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That's one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May's sales levels were awful by any measure but June's improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.

Second, although much improved, June's new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months.  The last year has averaged 7.7 months.

For buyers of new homes in Corona , this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive.  It's the main reason why homebuilder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.

Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.

Buyers Take The May 2010 New Home Sales Data All The Way To The Bank

One month after the federal homebuyer tax credit's official expiration, the New Home Sales report turned in its worst showing ever.

In May 2010, for the first time in 11 months, the inventory of unsold new homes crossed the 8-month marker, posting an 8.5 month supply overall.

Additionally, new homes sales volume fell to 300,000 units nationwide -- a drop of 32% and its lowest level since the Commerce Department started tracking data in 1963.

Now, universally, the press is referring to the May New Home Sales report as "poor".  A closer look, however, shows that may not be the case.

For one, we have to keep New Home Sales in perspective as a percentage of overall home sales. Yes, there were just 300,000 new homes sold in May, but there were also 5.66 million "existing" homes sold.

New Home Sales, therefore, accounted for just 5 percent of the total housing market -- a very small percentage.

Another reason why the weak New Home Sales data isn't so awful is that, when New Home Sales stall, it actually benefits home buyers.  Excess supply puts a strain on sellers which, in turn, gives buyers a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiation.

When home inventories are high, builders are more apt to appease their customers in hopes of making a sale.  For Corona home buyers, this can result in buying a better product at a lower price.

Especially with builder confidence plummeting.

Since February 2009, housing has shown steady gains. There's been both peaks and valleys across units, inventories, and prices, but overall, the market is improving.  May's New Home Sales data shows how now may an opportune time to "buy new".

The Supply Of New Homes For Sale Just Dropped Off A Cliff

The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the Corona housing market as we head into the summer months.

It's no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years. 

At the current sales pace, the nation's complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month's time.  That's more than double the pace of a year ago.

Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.

It's a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.

But before we declare the housing market "repaired in full", we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.

The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit's April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.

The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions.  Low rates don't sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.

And, lastly, March and April's new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders.  As compared to February 2010, April's average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent.  That's a sharp drop in a short period of time.

For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It's no wonder builder confidence is soaring.

New Homes Sales Were Strong in March, But Not As Strong As The News Would Have You Believe

The sales of newly-built homes soared in March. Even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the media is telling us.

Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:

• Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
• New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
• Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)

None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading.  The biggest reason why March's New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it -- February -- was the worst in New Home Sales history.

In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history. 

A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit's initial expiration date. 

Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.

Home buyers - first-timers and repeats alike -- went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program.  The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.

Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.

The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low.  Along with stronger home demand, this should push Corona home prices higher throughout the coming months.

It's no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.

Single-Family Housing Starts Hold Steady For The 8th Straight Month

Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.

According to the Commerce Department's report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.

This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.

Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true.  Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month.  However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:

1. Single-Family Housing Starts
2. 2-4 Unit Housing Starts
3. "Apartment Building" Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)

The press tends to lump all 3 together but that's not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers. 

2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too.  Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country's housing stock.

Single-family housing starts are up 32 percent over the last 12 months. 

Meanwhile, the pace of new buyers has not kept up with the pace of new housing stock. Therefore, because home prices are based on supply-and-demand, the price for a newly-built home was down, on average, 7 percent nationwide in January.

With the federal home buyer tax credit expiring soon, home buyers in Corona will likely create new demand for homes. And with Housing Starts holding steady near 500,000, that should push prices higher through the spring months.

Existing Home Sales Drop Again In January But Stay On The Trendline

The winter months have not been kind to home sales.

After plunging 17 percent in December, Existing Home Sales fell by an additional 7 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. An "existing home" is a home resold by a previous owner (i.e. not new construction).

In looking at the annualized, adjusted Existing Home Sales data, we find:

1. Sales volume is at its lowest levels since June 2009
2. Sales volume fell below its 12-month rolling average
3. Home supplies are at a 5-month high

These are similar findings to the New Home Sales data issued by the government last week.  That report put new home sales at a 40-year low and showed new homes supplies higher by an entire month.

But don't think housing rebound has halted! Home sales are cyclical and there are outside forces on today's market.

For one, the market is still feeling the after-effects of the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Sales spiked in the months leading up to the original November 2009 expiration date. A pull-back is natural and expected.

Looking at the long-term trend, Existing Home Sales volume appears right in line.

Furthermore, weather across much of the U.S. was awful in January. That, too, can impede home sales as homes are neither shown nor negotiated when weather is majorly inclement.

Anecdotal evidence is showing sales activity higher through February and into March. And, although it's unlikely we'll see a spike through April like we did last November, buy-side demand for homes should remain strong. The good news of the sagging sales reports is that today's buyers may find home prices are lower and sellers are more willing to negotiate.

As The Supply Of New Homes Grows, So Does The Opportunity For A "Good Deal"

The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the New Homes Sales category last month -- good news for homebuyers around the country.

A "new home" is a home for which there's no previous owner.

New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 -- the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.

Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009's pace.

The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:

• The original home buyer tax credit expired in November
• Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
• Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales

Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it's a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.

As a result, this season's home buyers may be treated to "free" upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.

It's all a matter of timing, of course.  New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it's not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season.  And from market to market, sales activity varies.

That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It's a favorable time to buy a new home.